Thursday, March 20, 2008

Stock market fluctuations:Signal to Indian organized sector.

For quite a few days now, the stock market indices are fluctuating like the voltage fluctuations in rural India. At the same time the gold prices are increasing constantly. But Indian economy as such looks stable and its prospects of good show are nowhere deterred. What is this phenomenon?
For some years now Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) invested heavily in the Indian stock market, thanks to the growth of our organized sector. But the just the investments can not lead to high growth of sector; there is a limit up to which growth is possible but beyond that the environmental factors play major roles. Hence to persist with a same growth rate is difficult even if you have enough funds and liquidity in the market. To achieve further growth of our organized sector, the environmental factors like taxation system, transport, communication and other social-infrastructure like law and order, education, training and health sector should also progress. These factors are limiting the potential of growth of Indian organized sector. It has reached to a saturation point and after this it can either decline or remain stable.
The FIIs do not prefer such situation, they want higher returns. Hence they go out of the stock market. This has widespread effect on small investors and speculators which causes panic in the stock market and share prices fall down. With lower prices, the bigger investors again jump into the fray increasing the share prices. This continues. This ripples in the share market, are enough to lose trust of the ordinary investors, who then prefer to invest into Gold as it is more reliable and stable investment option.
The Indian economy still looks good, because still the contribution of the organized sector in the Indian economy is much less. And looks like plane of our economy has already made a take-off and it is on auto-pilot. Now it is only going to fly unless some accident takes place. It just needs good economic environment. It’s high time now that government should start thinking of clearing this economic environment instead of trying to control the plane of our economy otherwise the Hindu rate of growth will prevail again.

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